Why India needs to rethink the Rafale deal

Fighter planes fall into two categories – the hunters and the hunted. The French are pitching their Rafale as the dogfight duke that is the crème de la crème of jet fighters. But the Russian side disagrees. Alexander Kadakin, Russia's ambassador in India, says Chinese-made Sukhoi-27s would be able to swat the Rafales like “mosquitoes on an August night.”

At this point it’s pointless to deliver the verdict on which aircraft is superior. The Rafale is a largely unknown commodity in aviation circles. Like most French fighters, it is most likely an unassuming, unspectacular but honest aircraft.

But what Kadakin left unsaid is ominous. First up, he said the hundreds of Su-27 Flankers supplied by Moscow to Beijing are much less advanced than the Flankers in India’s inventory. Now forget the Su-27 for a while and let’s talk about the two squadrons of the latest Su-35 Super Flanker that Russia has cleared for sale to China. This new iteration is a huge advancement over the already potent Su-27. If the aircraft's stupendous performance at the 2014 Paris Air Show is any indication then the Rafale is likely to fare even worse against the Su-35.

Costing dogfight

To be sure, the most significant aspect of the Rafale deal is the cost. Originally pegged at $10 billion, the size of the deal has climbed to a stratospheric $30 billion. So instead of bolstering the country’s air power, the Rafale is threatening to blow a gaping hole in India’s overstretched defence budget.

India may the third largest economy on the planet but in the backdrop of numerous projects requiring bucket loads of cash, New Delhi can’t afford to splurge on weapons, especially when alternatives are available for far less.

The IAF’s requirement of 126 aircraft can be quickly met – at a fraction of the cost of the Rafale – by inducting more numbers of the technologically superior Su-30s, which the IAF described as its “air dominance fighter,” and which is being produced at Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL).

Each Indian made Su-30 costs approximately $75 million per unit. So if the IAF goes for 126 of them, the total cost will come to under $10 billion, which coincidentally is the originally envisaged amount. Plus, the Sukhois will provide more bang for the buck. “These aircraft will be the high end of India’s air power, and can be expected to remain in the force past 2030, and are competitive with or superior to top-end European fighters and American F-15 variants,” says Defense Industry Daily.

Another option is to buy more of the – even more cheaper – MiG-29, which is the mainstay of India’s interceptor force, and which had shattered the morale of the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) during the 1999 Kargil War.

With the $20 billion or so saved, India can import leading edge aviation technology – from France, Russia, Germany or even the US to beef up its military aviation. With manufacturing declining in the US and Europe and thousands of defence sector jobs facing the axe, western engineers would be more than happy to work in India.

There is a precedent in this area. After 1991 when elite Soviet weapons engineers and scientists found their jobs gone, many of them found work at Chinese and South Korean companies – both military and civilian. Russian scientists and engineers ended up transforming the defence sector in both these Asian countries.

India too needs to tread the same path. Hiring unemployed or underemployed European defence sector workers would cut the development time frame of Indian defence projects. In fact, even Pakistan has a tenuous Russian connection. An administrator of Pakistan’s Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission from 1967 to 1970 was Polish aeronautical engineer air commodore Wladyslaw Turowicz. Born in Siberia, the Pole made significant contributions to Pakistan’s missile programme as an aeronautical engineer.

That brings up the third option. India’s homemade Tejas light combat aircraft (LCA) is being fielded in limited numbers, and further development can easily make it a world class fighter. India can then produce scores of LCAs costing around $40 million – for the IAF. For decades, China has adopted this policy of having hundreds of obsolete aircraft because “quantity has a quality all its own”.

Sending LCAs swarming into Pakistani air space would completely overwhelm that country’s defences. In effect, the Tejas fleet would kick the door in, allowing the Sukhois to pulverise targets with the supersonic BrahMos cruise missiles.

The LCA could even become the military equivalent of India’s $2000 TATA Nano car, for which there was a waiting list in Sri Lanka. Similarly, the LCA could be the ideal export aircraft to small countries with limited budgets. Aircraft such as the Su-30, MiG-29 and F-18 are too expensive and too big for the use of such nations. India could be the first to market a no-frills fighter.

Why Rafale?

When the MMRCA tender was floated over a decade ago, it seemed like a good idea. One, it was aimed at lowering India’s overwhelming dependence on Russia for advanced weapons.

Secondly, India wanted to acquire a medium aircraft that would fill the gap between the low-end LCA and the premium Sukhois.

The third reason was to shore up the IAF's depleting fighter fleet. The IAF’s sanctioned strength is 39.5 squadrons (an IAF combat squadron consists of 18 aircraft in service with another 3-4 in maintenance) but its current fleet is down to 34 squadrons. The air force says it requires 44 squadrons to meet a full-scale war with Pakistan, while also maintaining "a dissuasive posture" against China.

Earlier this year, the IAF told a Parliamentary standing committee on defence that a "collusive threat" from China and Pakistan would be difficult for it to handle. This was played up by the media, which failed to see the fine print: the IAF admitted (in the same statement) China may not pose “a collusive threat” if hostilities were to break out between India and Pakistan.

Indeed, why would the Chinese team up with a rapidly balkanizing Pakistan and attack a fellow BRICS member? It is not only counterintuitive but also a ridiculous idea.

As for the threat from Pakistan, it is really a joke. The arrival of the MiG-29 and the Sukhoi-30 in the 1990s has given the IAF a fearsome qualitative advantage over the PAF. This edge was demonstrated during the 1999 Kargil War. While a number of IAF aircraft took part in that campaign, it was the cover provided by the MiG-29 that spooked – and demoralised – the PAF pilots.

Says Strategy Page in a report dated May 20, 2005: “While PAF fighters did fly Combat Air Patrols (CAP) during the conflict, they stayed well within Pakistani air space. On occasions, IAF MiG-29s armed with the deadly R-77 BVR air-to-air missiles were able to lock on to PAF F-16s, forcing the latter to disengage.”

So scared were the Pakistani pilots of the Indian MiGs that the “PAF simply refused to play any part” in the war.

In the report “Airpower at 18,000 feet: IAF in the Kargil War” published by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in 2012, Benjamin Lambeth says the Pakistani F-16s “typically maintained a safe distance of 10 to 20 miles on the Pakistani side of the LoC”.

Qualitatively, the IAF is on an upward curve. In fact, in an interview to the media in 2012, former air force chief N.A.K. Browne gave the lie to the claim that the IAF was becoming weaker. According to Browne, the IAF is replacing older MiG-21s with Su-30s. He said once older aircraft are replaced with brand new Sukhois the IAF will have “far greater capability than even what we have today”.

If India and France sort out the numerous issues dogging the MMRCA deal and a contract is signed this year, then the first 18 Rafales will arrive from France in 2016. If all goes smoothly, the rest of the 102 aircraft could start rolling off HAL’s assembly lines by 2018.

But here’s the rub: around 2020 Sukhoi’s stealth fighter, the PAK-FA, in which India is a junior partner, will be ready to join the IAF. Why India is committing itself to a stopgap aircraft is mysterious.

Indian Army commanders to meet to discuss Afghanistan

Outgoing army chief General Bikram Singh will take stock of impact drawdown of Allied forces from Afghanistan and possible measures to counter threat arising from that country with his top commanders during Army Commanders Conference, scheduled to begin from next Monday in New Delhi.

Defence minister AK Antony, who has the distinction of being the longest-serving defence minister of the country, will also address the top commanders for the last time in UPA-II government.
According to army, the security as well as intelligence agencies are keeping a close watch on the developments in trouble-torn fragile Afghanistan. And especially after pullout of US led allied forces from there by the end of 2014.

"Various operational and strategic issues will be discussed during the five-day-long conference. Developments in neighboring countries especially Afghanistan will also be part of the discussion,"said an officer.

Keeping in view of drawdown of US-led forces from Afghanistan in 2014, Indian Army is also providing training to Afghanistan National Army (ANA). According to to army, Army is targeting to train about 1100 Afghan troops by the end of 2014, as compared to 574 personnel training in last year. Though New Delhi has not decided on the request of Afghanistan government to provide them lethal weapons, but they are considering an option send first batch of Indian experts and officers to Afghanistan to give training to ANA in their backyard and their home conditions. Training in their locations and terrain would given them an edge as compared to training here in Indian conditions.

Five day Army Commanders Conference, beginning from April 21, will also discuss security situation in Jammu and Kashmir and the issue of incursions by Chinese troops in Indian territory.

The issue of incursion by the Chinese troops along the Line of Actual Control is expected to come up for discussion, Army officials said.

The Indian side will also discuss the issues to be raised by the Director General of Military Operations (DGMO) during the delegation-level parleys with his Chinese counterpart starting April 23.

The LAC has seen several incidents of face-offs between Indian and Chinese troops and the two sides have signed a border pact recently to avoid the possibility of a flare-up between their troops while carrying out patrolling.

Meanwhile, the meeting is also expected to take up the security situation in Jammu and Kashmir and the expected rise in infiltration and activities by terrorists in the coming months.

India to pay Russia for arms, ammo it sells to Afghanistan

Ahead of NATO troops downsizing their presence in Afghanistan, India has firmed up a far-reaching deal with Russia to supply arms to the troubled country under which New Delhi will pay for the military equipment that will be sourced from Moscow.

The deal, which had been under intense negotiations for the past few months, was clinched after a high-level Indian team made a quiet trip to Moscow in February and stitched up the loose ends even as Russia was bracing for the challenge in Ukraine.

The first order under this deal, sources said, is already being executed.

India, through the strategic partnership with Afghanistan, is committed to provide arms and ammunition to strengthen the Afghan National Army. The arrangement with Moscow allows New Delhi to fulfill this commitment, an issue on which Kabul has been sending reminders including detailed lists of its requirements.

The issue was debated at length on various occasions in the Cabinet Committee on Security, which eventually arrived at two conclusions — that India will have no troop presence in Afghanistan; and that India will not provide small arms even though some are manufactured domestically.

The logic behind the second decision was to avoid a situation where any India-marked small arms make their way into Kashmir or to the hinterland through terrorist outfits.

While Russia may separately supply its own range of Kalashnikovs, the Indian financing will largely focus on artillery guns, air support in the form of choppers and even armoured vehicles, including tanks.

A range of non-lethal items could also make it to the list depending on the nature of the requirement. Also part of the arrangement is an exercise to refit some old Russian-made equipment lying with Afghanistan for years, sources said, adding that a survey of such equipment has been carried out.

As of now, the ANA is a predominantly infantry force as the US, sources said, limited its access to long-range guns largely due to Pakistani concerns. But over the past of couple of years, Afghanistan has been pressuring countries such as India and Russia to properly equip the ANA if it has to repel Taliban offensives on its own.

On the training front, the Indian position remains the same. While trying to meet Afghan demands for more seats here, the government is still against setting up any facility in Afghanistan and posting instructors there. Sources pointed out that any such move may also invite strong Pakistani protests.

Besides, India has also held preliminary conversations with China on jointly improving the connectivity infrastructure in Afghanistan’s mining belt so that the resources can be better exploited. Both countries already have interests in specific mining projects and are looking to expand their presence, which would aid Afghanistan’s economy.

India, Japan meeting on amphibious aircraft deal in Tokyo

 
India will discuss procurement of the Japanese US-2 amphibious aircraft during the working-level meeting between the two sides in Tokyo on Wednesday.

The meeting comes soon after Japan removed its self-imposed ban on exporting defence equipment to other countries.

India and Japan have been discussing the sale of these aircraft for quite some time now but the talks were held up as Japan was expressing unwillingness to sell defence equipment along with the planes, defence officials said here.

The first meeting of the Joint Working Group was held in December in India on the proposed sale of the amphibious aircraft required by the Navy to look after its island territories in Andaman and Nicobar and Lakshadweep.

As per Japan's new policy on defence equipment sale, it will prohibit the export of weapons to countries involved in conflicts. 

Vikrant sold to ship-breaker for Rs. 63.2 crore

 

The Navy last week sold the iconic INS Vikrant to a ship-breaking company here for Rs. 63.2 crore. The decommissioned aircraft carrier, which played a major role in the 1971 war and was retired in 1997, is now the property of IB Commercial Private Ltd.

INS Vikrant (formerly HMS Hercules) was purchased by India from the United Kingdom in 1957. It was operated from 1961 to 1997. (The other INS Vikrant is an Indian-built aircraft carrier which was launched in 2013.)

“As soon as we learnt that the ship was being auctioned, we bid for it. It is a prominent ship and we will move it out of the Mumbai harbour in the next 15 days,” manager Teslim Pavaskar told The Hindu on Tuesday.

The company plans to scrap it at the Darukhana ship-breaking yard here. Under the sale contract, the company should tow the ship out of the harbour in a month’s time.
A Defence Ministry source said the deal was in the nation’s interest. “The option of converting Vikrantinto a museum was not economically viable as it would have cost us around Rs. 500 crore.”

Other sources also said it was not fit enough to be converted into a museum. “The fire-fighting system on the vessel was damaged. Also, it had got rusted and had sustained structural damage,” another source said.

“The berthing-space constraints at the harbour will ease a bit with Vikrant being moved out. Around 700 feet of space will be liberated and this will facilitate navigation of naval vessels in the channel.”

In December 2013, a public interest litigation petition was filed in the Bombay High Court to preserve the ship and convert it into a museum.

But the Defence Ministry replied it was not feasible to convert the ship into a maritime museum. The court then dismissed the petition, and the Ministry set up an advisory board to sell the ship to the highest bidder.

Keywords: INS Vikrant dismantling, HMS Hercules, 1971 war

Vikrant sold to ship-breaker for Rs. 63.2 crore - The Hindu

Second User trial of Agni III next month

In a bid to make the 3000-km range nuclear capable ballistic missile Agni-III fully operational, Indian Army is readying for the second user associate trial of the weapon from a defence base off the Odisha coast next month.

Preparation is on at the Wheeler Island test facility from where the missile has been scheduled to be test-fired in a real time situation on December 18. This will be sixth test of the missile which defence sources said, was all set to go for bulk production after the trial.

After four developmental trials in 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2010, this ‘China Specific’ missile was inducted in the Armed Forces in June 2011. While the maiden trial of the missile was a failure, on the rest three occasions, the missile performed as expected. Its first user trial on September 21 last year was also a copy book success.

While the Strategic Forces Command (SFC), a specially raised missile-handling unit of the Indian Army will carry out the test, DRDO will provide all logistic support to track and monitor the missile’s flight path. The test will reconfirm the technical parameters set for the user associate launch and check the Army’s readiness to use it.

A defence scientist said the missile had been successfully test-fired four times in last six years making it full proof proven missile. “The technologies incorporated in the missile system and software have also performed as expected. After a couple of more user associate trials, the missile will be made fully operational,” he said.

After Agni-III trial, the DRDO has scheduled to conduct third trial of 4000-km range Agni-IV. Even as India adopts a clear-cut ‘no-first-use’ doctrine, it has an active credible nuclear deterrence and is well capable of its own defence with weapons like Agni series missiles, interceptors capable of destroying enemy missiles in both exo and endo atmospheric region, submarine and ship launched ballistic missiles besides a few short range and medium range surface-to-surface and air-to-air missiles.

Agni III is expected to be the mainstay of India’s nuclear deterrence programme when fully operational by providing the country with strategic second-strike capability.

India to acquire 15 US-2i aircraft from Japan after defence minister’s visit

India’s plan to acquire at least 15 US-2i amphibious aircraft for its Navy from Japan is expected to fructify when the defence minister of Japan arrives in India next month.

Speaking to FE, a senior officer said, “Soon after the Emperor of Japan’s visit is over, Itsunori Onodera, the defence minister of Japan, will visit India to explore the potential for cooperation between the defence and aviation industries between the two countries, as well as to figure out the mechanism and modalities for the acquisition of the aircraft by the Indian Navy.” Also, Onodera will also be seeking confirmation from India on cooperation in dealing with the issue of piracy in the Indian Ocean.

India has reportedly clarified that it is reviewing the Special Chemicals, Organisms, Materials, Equipment and Technologies (SCOMET), thereby placing the Shinmaywa US-2i as a dual civilian-and-military item. India has accepted the high cost of the aircraft to build up the strategic partnership.

The two sides had set up a joint working group to decide the terms of the cooperation of the US-2i amphibious aircraft when Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had visited Tokyo in May this year, and could possibly include joint production, operation and training on the US-2i amphibious aircraft. The Indian Navy earlier issued a request for information (RFI) for the aircraft. Canada’s Bombardier, Japan’s ShinMaywa and Russia’s Beriev had offered their aircraft to meet the requirements.